While the forecast for yesterday was tricky and frustrating, I'd say that it went generally as planned. As you know we started off with a wintry mix in the morning with some pockets of snow over the area. As we went into midday the rain snow line did start to creep north. There was some brief snow showers north of that line over parts of the Peninsula and other areas north of the metro. However, there was also a lot of melting near the line and south of it.

The rain/snow line kept creeping north through the day. By the time the evening came around the majority of the viewing area was covered by rain.

Before it melted there were about 3-4 inches over northern Accomack county, about 5" in Reedville, and about 5" over parts of northern Gloucester and Middlesex counties.

The highest amounts were up towards the Northern Neck and west of there. Since then we have had rainfall all night and all morning long. That has caused a lot of the snow to melt.

However, there were some big issues with freezing rain over towards the Richmond area. Luckily it was just rain here. Over the last 48 hours we have had about a half of an inch to an inch and a half of rainfall.

The pattern hasn't changed much since yesterday. We still have a stationary front to our south with a weak area of low pressure just to our southeast.

There is a lot of overunning precipitation again today. The front is turning into a warm front, but we'll stay on the colder side of the boundary all day. So expect a cold rain to continue all day.

Rain will be on and off all the way into this evening. We'll have a northeast breeze at 8-12mph. High temps will only rise to the mid 40s.

As we go into tonight and tomorrow the weak offshore low will actually drift back to the west a bit. The front will move up from the south as a warm front. We'll have lots of rain in the morning and midday.

However, during the afternoon the rain showers should taper off. Some models have that happening sooner than others. So we'll see. If we're lucky then we might even have a little late-day clearing. Regardless, through that time we'll probably pick up another half inch to an inch of rainfall.

The models show a little less to the south.

We will dry out on Friday as the front sinks back to the south as a cold front. We'll have lots of sun, but high temps will only rise to the low 40s.

As you can see we'll warm up by the weekend. High temps will be in the 50s and 60s. However, it looks like rain will move back into the region from Saturday afternoon into Sunday.

Down the road it looks like we'll be dry and cool next Monday and Tuesday. Highs will probably be in the 40s. However, the long-range models are showing a potentially big system next Wednesday. It's way out there, but let's just say that snow (and possibly a good amount of it) could return to the region. If not Wednesday, then maybe more between Wednesday and Thursday. I'll talk a little more about it in tomorrow's weather blog, but even then it will be too far out for any good details. Stay tuned.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

I knew the forecast was still going to be tricky this morning when I got in, but I had hoped that the models would be in pretty good agreement by 5am. Well...They agreed...somewhat. The trend is going pretty good, but the details are still shuffling around a bit. Let's start with the setup today. We have a stationary front to our south with a weak area of low pressure along it. High pressure is moving offshore. There is a cold front over the Midwest.

You'll notice that there is a lot of activity where there are no surface features. This is due to overunning precipitation. This has been happening a lot this Winter, and it's in full effect today. Basically warmer/more humid air pushes up over a cooler/drier air mass. This forces the air to rise and condensation to occur. Then precipitation will form and fall.

The precipitation had started up inland around 7am. Some light precip started in the metro around 8:30.

Moisture will continue to increase through the morning. The area of precipitation will grow by midday and the early afternoon.

This will be a wintry mix in the metro with mostly rain over northeast North Carolina. There will probably be snow showers north/northwest of the metro by that time. Temps will probably fall as A. the snow falls and works on the temperatures and B. cold air gets dragged down with some isolated heavy precipitation.

So there will be some snow showers north of Hampton Roads this afternoon. However, at the same time the rain/snow line will be working its way north.

The rain will then cause melting to happen in that zone. Temps will be above freezing for much of the region except for areas north where the snow is falling. Temps may get close to the freezing mark there for a time. The rain/snow line will probably make it to the Northern Neck and Accomack county by the early evening.

The models suggest that it will all rain by the later evening. Winds won't be a factor today. We'll have a steady northeast breeze at 8-12mph. High temps will be near 40 with upper 30s to the north. Tonight the rain will continue. It will be a cold rain with temps holding in the mid-upper 30s.

There will probably be some sleet mixing-in at times. Then more rain is expected for tomorrow as a warm front stays to our south but gets closer.

Rain may be heavy at times. There may be a few sleet pellets mixing in at times between tonight and tomorrow morning. Then more rain is expected on Thursday, but at least we'll warm to near 60. We'll be dry with highs in the 40s on Friday.

The snowfall forecast is still very tricky. The reasons are that 1. Temps will be above freezing for most of the area and most of the day. And 2. The timing of the rain/snow line marching north is a little different with each model.

Here are 4 of the models' snow forecast.

Our Future Trak model still has the most out of those 4. The hi-res NAM (not shown) really has hardly any snow accumulations in the metro area. You will notice that the highest amounts are from the Peninsula northward. This includes Accomack county. This is likely due to the rain/snow line taking longer to move up that way. Here is the National Weather Service's forecast.

So here's my latest snowfall forecast.

There may be some spots where it starts to stick to some grassy areas in the "melting mix" zone, but it shouldn't last too long if it does. I Do have the higher amounts to the north and northwest as the other models do. It will be difficult to actually tell how much snow will be on the ground in the end as that melt zone moves northward today.

After all of this wintry weather then we will have lots of rainfall. We do need it, but it may be a little too-much too-soon. Here is the rainfall forecast for the next 48 hours.

At least this will really knock down the current drought. Stay tuned for updates.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

The models did a pretty good job at predicting the forecast for this morning. A cold front was sinking to the south along with a weak area of low pressure. However, moisture in the upper levels was pushing up north of the boundary into the colder air mass.

This produced lots of rain with a wintry mix in the area for a time.

The precipitation won't last too long though. As the front sinks a bit more to the south today, the drier air should take over. We should have some clearing this afternoon, but we'll see how much we get. We will have a northeast wind running at 8-12mph through the day. High temps will probably make it to the low 40s. Some locations may even make it to the mid 40s.

The amount of clearing is in question for the afternoon. It's also in question for the evening and overnight. Some models hold on to a good amount of clouds through that time. That could impact the overnight low temperatures. Remember, clouds can act like a blanket and keep temps up during the overnight hours. What we are looking at is probably low-mid 30s with the clearing scenario up until after midnight. It will probably be more in the mid-upper 30s if we hold the clouds overnight. For now Future Trak puts our low temps in the mid-upper 30s despite some clearing for a time.

By tomorrow morning the front will be stalled out to our south, but a weak area of low pressure will form along the front. It will try to push the front north just a bit. However, overunning moisture will happen again Tuesday. So by the mid-morning the models have precipitation returning to the area. It may start as a mix for some with pockets of snow over parts of southeast Virginia as well.

The majority of precipitation will be a melting mix and rain over northeast North Carolina through this event. Having said that... Precipitation is forecast to increase through the late morning and midday hours as the moisture increases.

UPDATE: The new run of Future Trak is starting to come in line with the other models with the rain/snow line pushing north at a quicker pace.

This is where the forecast starts getting very tricky. Surface temps are forecast to be above freezing. That alone would promote some melting. Also, the models vary as to where the rain/snow line will be around midday.

The hi-res NAM (not shown) has only rain for the Southside and North Carolina with a large band of a mix over the Peninsula, Middle Peninsula, and lower Eastern Shore. It does have mainly snow north of that zone for a time. So it has hardly any snow for our region with a lot just north of the viewing area.

Back to Future Trak. It does have the rain/snow line moving north through the day, but veeeerrry slowly. So it doesn't have the rain/snow line actually reaching the Middle Peninsula until the early evening.

Even the GFS is a little sooner for that to happen.

The Euro model is even earlier with this push north of that line.

Future Trak does have the rain/snow line up to the Northern Neck eventually, but only towards the later evening hours.

When that rain moves north it should create a lot of melting. Even though it will be overnight for some. The changeover is due to the milder temperatures coming up from the south aloft. Again, Future Trak does have temps above freezing for the metro for almost the entire event but close to freezing for some. Some models forecast high temps near 40 while others (like Future Trak) are more in the mid-upper 30s. Have a headache yet? I do.

So the forecast gets easier then on Wednesday. We'll have scattered rain showers with high temps in the 50s.

So now let's talk snow totals... Future Trak (GRAF) has the highest amounts of snow totals compared to the rest.

Since I showed the updated GRAF model above I thought I'd show the updated snow forecasts (late morning). Wow! What a change from this morning:

I will say that it's not too far off from the National Weather Service's forecast this morning with the exception being the Southside.

The Euro, NAM, and hi res NAM really don't have much for Hampton Roads, but they all do show higher amounts north of a line from Williamsburg to Gloucester. There may actually be some very high amounts up there to the D.C. and Fredericksburg area. Some models suggest possibly over 10 inches up that way. Even the models that have less snow for us still have some high amounts up that way. So with all the models together I put together a forecast. Here you go:

Update: With our model going with lesser snow totals. I will likely lower the totals on the snow map for tomorrow. The evening mets are already updating.

I have the pink area as a general "more than 6" for now. It could be much higher than that in that zone. If our model is right, then I may have to drag the 2-4" zone a bit more south which would include Williamsburg, more of Gloucester, and more of the Eastern Shore. We'll see. The Southside up to Hampton will be even trickier as melting may get rid of all the snow by late in the day. So the tricky part of this forecast all comes from the timing of the rain/snow line pushing north.

There's so much to take-in about that part of the forecast. So I won't go into the longer range much. Wednesday and Thursday will have more rain with highs in the 40s Wednesday. We'll be in the 50s Thursday.

Stay tuned for updates. I think our Future Trak model will shift towards the other models a bit later today. Hopefully, they'll all agree more by the afternoon model runs. If you find this forecast very frustrating, then all I can say is sorry. And....welcome to Hampton Roads...

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler